Authors
• Sani, M. M.
• ,,
• Bello, M. I.
• ,mibello.elt@buk.edu.ng,Department of Physics BUK
• Ado, M.,mado.elt@buk.edu.ng,Department of Physics BUK
•
Abstract
Electricity load forecasting is essential for ensuring steady power supply and planning. In
Nigeria, electricity distribution companies face persistent challenges of transformer
overloading, poor voltage regulation, and frequent power interruptions, largely due to
inadequate demand prediction. This research applies deep learning models to forecast
short-term electricity load demand using six months of historical data obtained from an
electricity distribution company. Five deep learning models viz: Bi Gated Recurrent Unit (Bi
GRU), hybrid of Convolutional Neural Network and Gated Recurrent Unit (CNN-GRU),
Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated
Recurrent Unit (GRU) were trained and evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root
Mean Square Error, and coefficient of determination (R²) metrics. Among them, the GRU
model achieved the best performance with an average MAE of 0.0292, RMSE of 0.0514,
and R² of 0.5237. The trained model was used to forecast the next 24 hours loads, each
feeder was mapped with their corresponding transformers of various stations, using the
ratings of each to estimate transformer loading percentages based on the Nigerian
Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) standard power factor of at least 0.85. Results
revealed, among other transformers Gumel the TR1 was overloaded from 6 AM of
26/02/2024 to 4 AM of 27/02/2024, it has a rating of 7.5MVA, the predicted load at 6 AM was
5.7875MW which gives 90.79 overloaded, indicating potential overload risks if corrective
measures are not taken. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of GRU-based
forecasting in predicting short-term load demand and provides an insight to improve
transformer efficiency and highlight potential overload for better distribution and system
management.
Keywords
Deep Learning
Electricity Load Forecasting
GRU
Power Distribution
Transformer Loading.