Authors
• Sani, M.,,,Department of Physics BUK
• Idris, M,midris.phy@buk.edu.ng,Department of Physics BUK
• Said, S. R,,Department of Physics BUK
•
Abstract
Urban centers in developing regions are increasingly important contributors to atmospheric
greenhouse gas emissions and ozone-relevant air pollution, yet long-term observational
analyses remain limited across sub-Saharan Africa. This study presents a comparative
assessment of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and ozone (O3) over two major
northern Nigerian cities Kano and Katsina using satellite and model-derived datasets from
GEOS-Chem (CO2), the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS; CH4), and MERRA-2 (O3) for
the period 2015-2021. Monthly concentrations were evaluated using descriptive statistics,
seasonal climatology, and the Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test with Sen’s slope
estimator. CO2 exhibited statistically significant increasing trends in both Kano (Z = 8.421, p
< 0.000001) and Katsina (Z = 8.376, p < 0.000001), with Sen’s slope magnitudes of 2.46
ppm yr⁻ ¹ and 2.45 ppm yr⁻ ¹, respectively. Mean concentrations increased from
approximately 399 ppm in 2015 to about 417 ppm by 2021, consistent with reported global
background growth rates. Methane also showed significant upward trends, with Kano (Z =
6.315, p < 0.000001; β = 0.0114 ppm yr⁻ ¹) and Katsina (Z = 7.022, p < 0.000001; β =
0.0127 ppm yr⁻ ¹) exhibiting sustained increases alongside stronger seasonal variability
than CO2. In contrast, O3 displayed weak positive slopes that were not statistically significant
(p > 0.05), although pronounced seasonal cycles were observed, with dry-season maxima
and wet-season minima consistent with photochemical production under enhanced solar
radiation and reduced wet scavenging. Kano systematically exhibited slightly higher CO2
and CH4 concentrations relative to Katsina, reflecting differences in urban scale, industrial
activity, and traffic density. Inter-gas comparisons reveal concurrent long-term increases in
CO2 and CH4, suggesting strengthening anthropogenic influence, while O3 variability
appears primarily controlled by seasonal meteorological drivers. These findings contribute
one of the few multi-year comparative urban atmospheric assessments in northern Nigeria
and provide regionally relevant evidence to inform integrated greenhouse gas mitigation and
ozone precursor management strategies across the Sahel.
Keywords
Carbon dioxide
Greenhouse gases
Methane
Northern Nigeria
Ozone
Urban air quality
Sahel.